Mass Incarceration and Recidivism in the U.S.

Over the past fifty years, the United States has built the largest prison system in the world. It’s a system marked by extreme sentencing, racial disparities, and high levels of recidivism. And after a brief decline in the prison population after 2010, recent prisoner number increases have led to renewed calls for system reform. 

This study will closely consider mass incarceration and recidivism rates across America. We’ll look at racial and gender issues, key sentencing factors, and the types of rehabilitative reform programs experts suggest could transform the prison landscape in the U.S.

First, let’s look at the big picture and how the U.S. prison population has evolved over the past few decades. 

U.S Incarceration Trends

In 1972, the United States imprisonment rate was 93 per 100,000 people. From 1973 onwards, the country’s prison population rapidly expanded. (In 1970, fewer than 6,000 women were incarcerated. By 2015, the number was 105,000, a 17‑fold increase.)

Between 1985 and 1995, the national prison population increased by 8% every year; from 1990 to 1995, all but one state (Maine) was subject to an expanding prison population, with increases varying from 13% in South Carolina to a staggering 130% in Texas.

By 2009, the U.S. prison population had grown sevenfold, with the federal system growing 53% over the same period.

After a slow prison population decline that began in 2010 and continued for more than a decade (in 2020, the prison population dropped by 14%, largely due to low admission numbers during the COVID‑19 pandemic), prison numbers once again began to rise.

A Recent Prison Population Rise

2022 marked the first prison population increase in nearly ten years (2%). There was another 2% rise in 2023, driven by increases across 39 states. Female imprisonment grew 4.1% between 2022 and 2023, more than double the male rate, while 2022 saw a 50% increase in the number of youths held in adult prisons, with the number increasing into 2023.

As things stand, there are nearly 2 million people incarcerated in 1,664 state and federal U.S. jails and prisons. (450,000 people leave the U.S. prison every year, with 95% of prisoners ultimately reentering society.)

Yet those broad figures don’t account for numerous demographic discrepancies. For example, a vastly disproportionate number of Black Americans make up the American prison population.

Racial Disparities in U.S. Incarceration

According to study data, 1 in 5 Black men born before 2001 will be incarcerated in their lifetime, with people of color representing almost 70% of the prison population, and 1 in 81 Black adults currently serving time in state prison.

For a clear illustration of U.S. prisoner racial disparity, recent data confirmed that Black Americans represent:

• 14% of the U.S. population
• 33% of the prison population, and
• 46% of individuals who had served 10+ years in prison.

As a quick comparison, White people represent around 64% of the U.S. population, yet only around 30% of the prison population.

Additionally, before 1986, Black people were dealt drug sentences that ran on average 11% longer than those given to white people. Four years after the Anti-Drug Abuse Act (1986), the disparity massively increased to 49% longer. In general, prison sentences are now much longer than they were decades ago.

Extreme Sentencing

In 1984, the Sentencing Reform Act created federal sentencing guidelines and removed the possibility of parole, while 1986’s Anti‑Drug Abuse Act created mandatory minimum sentences. Following these changes, the average federal drug sentence increased from under 2 years in 1986 to 7 years by 2005.

For further evidence of massively increasing sentences, consider the rising number of both life without parole (LWOP) and life with parole (LWP) sentences since 1992.

In 1992, 9,000 prisoners were sentenced to LWOP, with 58,000 prisoners sentenced to LWP. By 2003, the number of LWOP sentences had more than tripled, with LWP sentences up 62%. By 2024, there were 56,245 prisoners serving LWOP sentences (six times the 1992 level), with LWP prisoners up 68%.

Alongside increasing prison sentence lengths and rising prison populations, the rate of prisoner recidivism is extremely high.

Recidivism Rates

62% of released prisoners are subsequently rearrested within three years, while 39% ultimately return to prison. Of the 450,000 prisoners released during 2023, it’s anticipated that 280,000 will be rearrested by 2026, with 174,000 returning to prison.

But what’s behind such high levels of recidivism?

Recidivism: Key Factors

People heading back into society after serving a prison sentence face multiple, often overlapping challenges.

• Mental health 

Mental health disorders affect 15% of male and 31% of female prisoners, 3-6 times higher than the average rate across the general civilian population.

• Substance use 

Around 50% of prisoners suffer from a substance use disorder; 70% of those who also suffer from mental illness have a substance use disorder.

• Housing instability 

15% of prisoners were homeless during the year in which they were imprisoned.

• Education and employment

40% of former prisoners don’t have a high school diploma, while employment rates for released prisoners are low due to the stigma of incarceration, plus significant skill gaps.

• Family impact and parenting difficulties 

2.7 million children have an incarcerated parent.

It’s also important to point out that many returns to prison are due to technical issues as opposed to outright criminal behavior.

For example, in 2023, nearly 200,000 people were re-admitted to prison for probation or parole violations, with over 110,000 sent back to prison for technical violations (not new crimes).

And although prisoners on supervision accounted for less than 2% of all arrests, states spent $10 billion subsequently incarcerating people for supervision violations, including $3 billion for technical violations.

Let’s take a closer look at state recidivism rates, with a focus on California’s statistics.

State Recidivism Levels

Here are the states that feature the highest recidivism rates (using the most recent data found for each state). California just about makes it into the top ten.

Conversely, here are the states featuring the lowest recidivism rates.

With the state posting a notably high recidivism rate, let’s take a closer look at California’s incarceration numbers and associated data.

California Prisoner Data

Here’s a quick look at the prison admission rates in California since 2018. Although down on 2018 numbers, there’s a clear rise in prison admissions between 2022 and 2023.

Compared to the admission rate for White people prison in California:

• Black people are 5.6x more likely to be admitted to prison
• Hispanic people are 1.7x more likely to be admitted to prison
• American Indians are 3.8x more likely to be admitted to prison
• Pacific Islanders are 1.6x more likely to be admitted to prison
• Asian Americans are 88% less likely to be admitted to prison

Parole Violation Readmissions

Compared to the parole violation readmission rates for White people in California:

• Black people are as likely to be admitted to prison

Hispanic people are 11% less likely to be admitted to prison.

Probation Violation Admissions

Alternatively, here are the probation violation admission rates in California.

Here are some key prison population trends in California, showing the change between 2022 and 2023. As is clear, 2023 data illustrates a varying percentage drop regarding the number of violations.

Among the measures being taken or considered to address recidivism and what’s been termed a ‘crisis’ in American prisons, one involves the potentially broad transformation of juvenile correctional facilities and a change in rehabilitative techniques.

Tackling Recidivism With Restoring Promise

Put simply, the Restoring Promise initiative represents a significant shift in young adult rehabilitation. The initiative aims to focus on human dignity, mentorship, and community engagement, and to create safer, more supportive environments that encourage personal growth and reduce rates of recidivism.

Although the Restoring Promise initiative uses established, evidence-based corrections practices, it also embraces normalization and dynamic security as its central principles.

The initiative, which focuses on creating supportive housing units for young adults in correctional facilities, has successfully partnered with corrections departments in Colorado, Connecticut, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, and South Carolina. 

Surveys carried out across all operating Restoring Promise units confirmed some key beneficial effects. For young offenders in the program (surveyed between 12 and 18 months after they became involved in the program), here are some key results. 

Young Adult Benefits

• Felt safe: 94.6%
• Felt their time on the unit was productive: 92.5%
• Received key support: 88%
• Gained life skills: 88.9%
• Felt prison officers treated them with respect: 68%
• Felt prison officers were positive role models: 71%
• High‑quality visits: 83.7%

Staff Verdicts

• Enjoyed working with residents: 100%
• Believed young adults would be better equipped once released: 88%
• Believed the program prepared residents for reentry: 95.5%
• Enjoyed their role: 80.5%
• Felt safe: 97%
• Felt part of a community: 97.7%

Other programs focused on building young prisoners’ skills are also a potential rehabilitative asset. Michigan’s Vocational Village provides industry-recognized certifications in carpentry, welding, robotics, and automotive tech, amongst other disciplines. Participants subsequently show higher employment and lower recidivism than nonparticipants.

Similarly, The Last Mile provides coding and technology training inside prisons. This initiative operates 18 classrooms across 8 states, with students training for 30-40 hours a week for 12 months. The program has enlisted 1,500+ participants since inception, over 70% subsequently earning a paid role within six months of release.

Rehabilitation: The Key to Avoiding Recidivism?

The U.S. prison population has grown massively since the early seventies. Between 1985 and 1995 alone, the total prison population grew an average 8% every year. After a brief period of decline, 2022 marked the resumption of rising prison population numbers. And part of the problem is a high rate of recidivism.

Unless something is done to lower recidivism rates, around 320,000 of the approximately 450,000 people released from prison in 2022 will be rearrested by 2027. 

62% of released prisoners are subsequently rearrested within three years, while 39% ultimately return to prison

Among that number, 180,000 will return to prison. Rather than assuming that incarcerated people are already a lost cause, the introduction of young offender rehabilitative programs offers an opportunity to positively influence how people live post-release.

Evidence from the Restoring Promise initiative and other reentry programs shows that humane, rehabilitative approaches can reduce violence, improve staff well‑being, and dramatically lower recidivism. With such a high percentage of released prisoners returning to prison, the need for effective, scalable reform has never been more urgent.

Additionally, initiatives such as The Second Chance Act provide invaluable support in the fight against recidivism. The Act has authorized $165 million in grants for reentry programs across all U.S. states and some territories, with programs serving 164,000+ people. Since 2011, over 12,000 participants have subsequently obtained employment.

By focusing on mental health (serious mental disorders are three to six times higher among prisoners than among the general population), substance abuse (half of prisoners suffer), homelessness (15% of prisoners were homeless when imprisoned) and education (40% of prisoners lack a high school diploma or its equivalent) as part of rehabilitative programs, prisoners are both more likely to avoid reincarceration and find gainful employment once released.

The labor market is still one of the key reentry issues for released prisoners: helping them find employment could be a key part of the recidivism equation.

And over 80% of canvassed voters believe formerly incarcerated people deserve a second chance, with over 90% supporting prisons being mandated to provide education, vocational training, and safe environments.

Ultimately, there are far too many U.S. prisoners in prison, and far too many reentering the prison system once released. The adoption of a European-influenced rehabilitative model could be a crucial means of not only preventing recidivism but also saving taxpayer money.

CSG says a sustained 30% reduction in recidivism could keep over 500,000 people out of prison over a decade. The same estimate says states could avoid close to $44 billion in corrections costs. With excellent results so far from the states that have adopted Restoring Promise and similar initiatives, there’s plenty of room for optimism regarding the future of young prisoners, particularly if more states get on board.

If you’ve been arrested, it can feel like your life is ending. Everyone makes mistakes, and Simmrin Law Group is here to help you. Get in touch with a California criminal defense lawyer today. Let’s move forward together.